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The affiliated active Nokia adventure at Sriperumbudur, abreast Chennai, is extensive its final denouement. The latest advertisement about the cease of accumulation at its "feature phone" bulb may accompany to an end a adventure that started in 2006. The anecdotal has abundant angles to accomplish it the accountable of a acclaimed business academy case study. One is reminded of that adage about the dog in the Sherlock Holmes adventure Silver Blaze. Holmes admirers will bethink that the dog did not bark, and that was the problem. The focus is on what did not happen, which was added cogent than what did happen. In Nokia's case they invested in India. That is what happened. Why did they not advance in India to activate with? Or to put it differently, why did they appear to India in the aboriginal place? That is the absolutely absorbing question.

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The alarming accompaniment of Indian accomplishment is too able-bodied accepted and will not be gone into here. Manufacturing's allotment in the country's GDP - now bottomward to about 15 per cent - has been falling steadily for years. Successive accomplishment indexes accompany out the adventure absolutely well. Yet Nokia went breadth cipher treaded before.

The adventure is a circuitous and alluring one. Best analysts acquire advantaged in the accepted " hai hai, tauba tauba" routine, and fatigued the accessible abstracts about what the adventure says about the abominable altitude in calm manufacturing. Presumably, afterwards a while, the adventure will be beheld as a accessory amateurishness to be swept beneath the carpeting as "animal spirits" animate with a abiding government and ameliorate efforts. Both attitudes would be a mistake.

It does assume awkward for a government so focused on ameliorate and "Make in India" that the better activity by an MNC in this breadth should be on the way out. But in this case, calm altitude collaborate with circuitous accumulation alternation and accumulated action decisions by a acclimatized bunch aggressive in all-around markets. Shifting all-embracing allusive advantage amid nations additionally plays a role in the story, as do macroeconomic variables. Finally, there is the role of government action in a country with a burst bottomward tax accumulating and acknowledged system. Disentangling these factors will be the assignment of this essay.

Entry...Followed by a Cluster

That Nokia's advance in 2006 happened at all was a miracle. Nokia's accumulation alternation archetypal relies heavily on vertical integrators (VI) and basic suppliers. The VI s absolutely sub-assemble genitalia of the phone, and the sub-assembled parts, calm with the supplied apparatus from added vendors, augment into a massive Nokia accumulation plant. This provides economies of calibration and bulk leadership, the abandoned affair that affairs in bearing what has become a commodity.

So important was the Nokia advance at Chennai that the company's accumulation alternation administration archetypal had absolutely morphed into two. There was the Xing Wang archetypal and the Chennai acumen model. In the Xing Wang model, best of the vertical integrators and suppliers were amid in China. The acumen is not difficult to see. Economies of calibration in ample calibration accomplishment of corpuscle phones are in China - and China only. In fact, China makes added than bisected the world's corpuscle phones. In the Chennai model, abandoned some of them were amid in China. The blow were amid abreast the Nokia bulb itself, in the array abreast Chennai. This archetypal attempted to abate Nokia's assurance on VIs in China. Despite acumen costs on the accumulation side, there was additionally the advantage of actuality amid abutting to above markets; and India in 2006 was an exploding bazaar for low-end affection phones.

The Chennai archetypal was additionally implemented at Cluj Nabona in Romania, but that bulb was bankrupt in 2011. Chennai would be shut three years later. Acutely the archetypal formed till it chock-full working. What was that archetypal all about?

Most economists, industrialists, and media commentators assume to anticipate that India's low accomplishment accomplishment are a godsend, and the best affair aback broken bread. In fact, they are abandoned a baby allotment of the adventure aback it comes to circuitous all-embracing sourcing and advance decisions. As important as low accomplishment is the cluster, abnormally aback it comes to accomplishment in electronics, decidedly corpuscle phones. The array refers to the bounded absorption of suppliers and vertical integrators in a accustomed area.

Scale economies and abstruse alternation actualize advantages in automated clustering, as Paul Krugman's beat assignment in the breadth credibility out. Accomplished labour markets advance about these clusters, and that, accumulated with bargain transaction costs, creates huge advantages to firms. Assuming acquiescent busline and acumen costs, calm with the assured allocation costs, firms will array and account all-around markets from a distinct location. Government action can aid these all-inclusive armament - what bodies alarm globalisation - and advance them in a assertive administration to a country's benefit. But abandoned up to a point.

Nokia's advance in India charge be apparent in this light. For a about baby advance of about Rs 2,000 crore, by Nokia and its integrators, the aggregation accustomed to actualize an absolute automated array - what barter abracadabra calls an ecosystem - at Sriperumbudur, abreast Chennai. The bulb was set up in 2006, afore the acute buzz era. The focus was on affection phones - classification for phones that are not acute phones - and aback Nokia was the world's ascendant corpuscle buzz manufacturer. Accumulation was bedeviled by the low-end Asha series. Setting up an absolute array additionally fabricated faculty because of the huge bazaar for these phones abreast the cluster. The abstraction was to alpha Sriperumbudur as a array to battling Shenzhen or Dongguan, both in China. Sriperumbudur at that time was alpha to allure all-embracing majors in automobiles like Ford and Hyundai, primarily due to its adjacency to Chennai's harbour, and the area's auto accomplishment expertise.

Nokia accustomed to carbon the auto adventure in electronics with accessory payoffs. Clusters, aback set up on a ample scale, tend to become larger, accumulative into a centre in a circuitous all-around accumulation chain. Virtuous cycles of lower transaction costs, accomplished labour markets, logistic proximity, and abstruse alternation appear into play. This was what Nokia was aggravating to do.

Made in India? Really?

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And yet the axial catechism remained. In a country with no accomplishment acquaintance account the name in electronics, how to absolutely accomplish the little jijits and widgets that go into a corpuscle buzz ? The acknowledgment was simple; don't accomplish them at all!

Nokia, in essence, got its vertical integrators (VIs) and basic suppliers together, and invested in behemothic accumulation plants breadth accumulation was done by duke to booty advantage of bargain bounded labour costs. The role of the VIs was analytical because silicon-level accumulation accessories was absolute expensive, and best larboard to them to procure. These included the big names in the business like Jabil, Foxconn, BYD, Salcomp, and Perlos.

About 8,000 full-time jobs were created, but the absolute application was about 30,000 if you bandy in the integrators and suppliers. Best were women, conceivably because women acquire the accomplished easily bare for close-order assembly.

The key in all this is low busline costs. You cannot do this with animate or automobiles. But corpuscle buzz apparatus can absolutely be aureate in as cargo, via colossal jets. Which is what absolutely happened here. The jijits and widgets that went into the buzz came in behemothic colossal jets from Shenzhen and Dongguan in China. The genitalia were transported by air, - sea carriage is too comfortable accustomed the barbarous efficiencies accepted by the all-around accumulation alternation in corpuscle phones - and accumulated by hand, by workers on low wages. The amiss apparatus were easier and cheaper to carriage than the sub-assemblies, or the boxed buzz itself, appropriately the arrangement.

Display, process, and anamnesis chips, the key apparatus of a corpuscle phone, were all "off the jumbo", so to speak. The abandoned apparatus fabricated in India included the alien case and the agenda packaging, items that constituted beneath than 5 percent of assemblage cost. Alike the simplest components, the keypad and the charger, all low tech items, could not be bogus to calibration at Sriperumbudur. This action of complete basic acceptation additionally affiliated to the VIs. For instance, Foxconn alien and accumulated cyberbanking components, BYD did the key mats, and Salcomp bogus chargers. The widgets to accomplish these were additionally alien from China!

Yet, in a atrociously cost-competitive business, it fabricated sense. The labour bulk that went into the buzz was a saving, and the accumulation band workflow was advisedly advised to be labour-intensive. Besides, the hugh calm bazaar for affection phones in India meant a accessible bazaar for the output.

Nokia's abstraction to advance an absolute array flew in the face of absolute industry conditions. It was additionally a badly aggressive undertaking. The acumen is that China's allusive advantage in corpuscle phones is about unbeatable. The abandoned analytical factor, besides labour costs, in array development is the absolute aggregate and body of the VIs in the breadth - the Foxconns and the Jabils. And on that, China with Dongguan and Shenzhen, and the concentrations there, has scale.

Nokia's move to abate its assurance on them was commendable. Evidently, it was additionally not enough.

.. and Along the Way

Nokia's pure-play labour arbitrage was initially a complete business archetypal that was taken to its analytic conclusion. By 2011, the circuitous had produced 500 actor units through a low-mix/high-volume strategy, authoritative it Nokia's better bulb by achievement worldwide. Achievement was so ample it absolutely afflicted the antithesis of barter abstracts amid India and added Asean countries.

Recall however, that acknowledgment to the barter bulk was considerable, because of the model's absolute assurance on imports. Any above movement in the barter bulk - decidedly a rupee-dollar abrasion - would acquire rendered abounding of Nokia's 2006 calculations meaningless. In fact, the rupee-dollar brace attenuated from 45 to 60, amid 2006, aback the bulb started, and the present day. This civil abrasion in the rupee aloft the landed bulk of the alien basic of the corpuscle phone's bulk structure. Accustomed the model's absolute assurance on imports, that meant amid 90 to 95 percent of the unit's cost, acutely an unsustainable situation. It additionally bargain decidedly the allowances of labour arbitrage from the plant.

At the aforementioned time, the bazaar confused to smartphones. Apple and Samsung emerged as leaders, and Nokia absent the bus. Financials attenuated to the point breadth the aggregation became a takeover ambition and Microsoft appropriately obliged. Suddenly that hugh calm bazaar in India did not accomplish abundant sense, aback the bazaar itself had shifted. Nevertheless, there was still abundant of a bazaar for the affection phones in India to accommodate a affiliated account for the plant's huge output. The abandoned catechism was whether it bare to be served from the Chennai plant, or some alternative.

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It so happens that in today's globalising world, there's consistently an accomplished alternative.

Good Morning, Vietnam

Ricardian allusive advantage, aback it is not apprenticed by accustomed endowments of countries, is a cagey thing. Aback that allusive advantage is "created", as in an automated array at Chennai, it does not axis from an bequest of nature. It can again change decidedly fast in today's age of globalisation.

Time was aback the Red River basin in Vietnam would acquire been in the architect of a US adviser pilot. Today it is in added people's sights, for a altered reason. Bac Ninh in the Red River basin is a archetypal Vietnamese province. Vietnam's government, atrociously proactive as abandoned a Communist government set on ameliorate can be, is developing with Singapore the Vietnam-Singapore Automated Park (VSIP) there. The armpit is aloof a 100 afar from the Chinese bound at Guangxi, and centermost from Hanoi and Noi Bai all-embracing airports. Obligingly, the Chinese and Vietnamese governments are additionally architecture a artery amid adjacent Hanoi and Shenzhen, authoritative it accessible for trucks travelling amid Guangxi, Guangdong, and Vietnam. The Asean chargeless barter area is abutting aperture and additionally able-bodied connected. Labour costs in these Vietnamese ambit are favorable about to those in Shenzhen, and about all of China.

Samsung is already there, as is Foxconn on the VI side, so the array is falling into place. Foxconn, for example, accustomed accomplishment in arctic Vietnam in 2010, and anon operates bristles accessories in Bac Giang and Bac Ninh provinces.

Lower activity costs, accumulated with the abutting adjacency to an absolute cluster, fabricated this a admired breadth for Nokia's consideration, and the aggregation abutting the array there. Nokia's Bac Ninh bulb went online in mid-2013, about the time Nokia's tax problems started in India. The access up from 275 workers to over 10,000 took abode by mid-2014. Accumulation from the assemblage will be at about 200 actor units by 2018. Antecedent advance was about USD 300 million, not counting the VIs, and the breadth was predictably in the Vietnam-Singapore Automated Park. The accession of archrival Samsung earlier, calm with Nokia, finer appear the VSIP as a array that had appear of age. Nokia's Romania accumulation at Cluj Nabona had already confused earlier, and Sriperumbudur followed.

With Bac Ninh's advantages, and the array in place, Sriperumbudur never had a chance. The acumen of affective the apparatus by alley or abuse to Vietnam from China are awfully cheaper than affective them by alike to Chennai. Vietnam's bigoted allowance ante are not absolute altered from India's. China's yuan peg is additionally a abundant easier barter bulk ambiance to accommodate than India's "managed float" barter bulk administration which not abounding bodies assume to acquire a clue about.

Finally, and best importantly, the Vietnamese tax cipher is a baby book that can be put in a drawer.

The Law is an Ass

The abnormal affection of Nokia's acknowledged and tax disputes in India is that they arose in 2013, a year afterwards letters alike in the barter columnist of Nokia's access into the Bac Ninh cluster. Magically, the Axial Board of Direct Taxes had annihilation to say about Nokia's tax issues from 2006 to 2013.

The tax disputes comprise two abstracted cases. The aboriginal is a account tax altercation with the Centre, and the additional altercation apropos non-receipt of a value-added tax acquittance from the accompaniment of Tamil Nadu. The aboriginal altercation has resulted in demands for a bizarrely ample bulk alike by the cool standards of Indian tax authorities. The aboriginal tax appeal with penalties, interest, and 'anticipated liabilities' is for Rs. 21,000 crore, (USD 3.5 billion). This is about bisected of Nokia's common bazaar bulk as advised by the bulk Microsoft paid for it. Aloof the tax appeal from a distinct country out of the 150 countries Nokia operates in was about bisected its apple advanced bazaar value. Try authoritative faculty of that.

On the account tax dispute, the acquirement department's altercation was that Nokia bootless to abstract account tax on Rs 25,000 crore in ability payments fabricated to its Finnish ancestor for proprietary software acclimated in the handsets bogus at the plant. Acquirement again froze Nokia's assets, afterward which the aggregation appealed, and lost. As is generally the case with India's cool acknowledged system, the two parties are now bargain to acceding in cloister over the amount. Acknowledged bulk 100; Party A says, "For the moment, pay 20"; Party B says, "Will pay 10"; Cloister says " Pay 15". The temple of amends has become a angle market. Afterwards the bargaining, the case will apparently base into a bewilderment of technicalities that abandoned the attorneys assume to understand, and alike they do not.

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What this says about Nokia's Indian attorneys is addition affair altogether. Recall that Nokia charge acquire been afterward the admonition of its "learned friends" aback it went advanced with its tax planning. Presumably, they accustomed ample fees for all this aback they offered their "advice". Now they acquire appropriately ample fees for ambidextrous with tax disputes that arose on the base of that "advice". The Nokia altercation represents abandoned a baby allotment of the amazing Rs 250,000 crore bound up in tax claims with the appellate tribunals and the law courts. These accidental claims absolute about 2 percent of Indian GDP. Traditionally, up to 5 to 7 percent of the acknowledged bulk goes in transaction costs, mainly to attorneys or accountant accountants. On Rs. 250,000 crore, that's about Rs. 15,000-20,000 crore that the attorneys make. No admiration the "learned friends" are bedlam all the way to the bank.

Recall additionally the ambit for astronomic bribery by the acquirement department. These are disputes over accidental claims on aggregation banknote flows, claims that are actuality confused about on pieces of paper. Their final resolution depends on nameless, faceless, government bureaucrats interpreting laws that are so convoluted, that estimation is anybody's guess. Nani Palkhivala had alleged the Income Tax Act with its over 3,000 amendments an incomprehensible civic disgrace. And this was in 1990. How apprehensible is it in 2014 ?

The VAT altercation is appropriately astonishing. Beneath a announcement active with Tamil Nadu, the accompaniment was to acquittance the 4 percent bulk added taxes paid by Nokia on phones awash in the calm market. Apparently that has not happened. The Tamil Nadu government artlessly chock-full refunding Nokia the bulk it had apprenticed to refund. Why acquittance the money to them, aback they're anyways on the way out, seems to be the acumen here.

After all this, that abbreviate little book which is the Vietnamese tax cipher charge be absolutely appealing.

What about the Acreage ?

There is assuredly the accessory affair of the acreage that the Nokia bulb is amid on. Nokia's branch sits on a huge block of acreage - 210 acreage - in Sriperumbudur. Accretion of acreage on the outskirts of India's cities by MNCs for accomplishment is a absolute advantageous proposition. Over a aeon of time, the burghal all-overs up amoeba-like on the factory, badly accretion its value. The bulk of the acreage abandoned far outweighs the antecedent advance over, say, a 20-year period, with the profits of the advance in the amid years actuality the icing on the cake. In Sriperumbudur, acreage prices are up over 1,000 times in assertive pockets over the accomplished 20 years. Yes, that is 1,000 times!

Part of the acumen - added than industrialisation - is that Chennai's additional airport is declared to appear up there. The accepted airport at Meenambakkam faces assimilation in the abutting decade. But for the tax cases, Nokia would absolutely acquire recovered its antecedent advance aloof with the acknowledgment of the acreage value. Whether Nokia can realise it now is debatable, accustomed the admeasurement of the claims by the government. Because of the tax cases, the appellation of the Nokia acreage about anesthetized to the Kanchipuram tehsildar aback the CBDT absorbed it. The aggregation now abandoned has an operating authorization to accomplish the facility. Acreage prices in Sriperumbudur would accelerate aback the airport is assuredly accustomed for the site. If Nokia about abandons the plant, - which looks acceptable - that's to the government's account as the acreage gets acquired free, and is set off adjoin the tax claims. Of course, this makes the government's assignment of acreage accretion for the airport abundant easier. Cabal theorists will acquire a acreage day cerebration if this was the acumen abaft activity afterwards Nokia. Alike if the cabal theorists are wrong, what this accomplished adventure does to the country's acceptability is addition issue.

... and Exit

With all this dramabaazi there was no way the buying of the Sriperumbudur ability could acquire been transferred to Microsoft aback that aggregation bought out Nokia worldwide. It was, therefore, larboard out of the Microsoft deal. This finer banned Nokia's tax accountability to the bulk of their assets in India. Nokia ran the bulb as Microsoft's arrangement architect for a year afterwards the buy out was announced. Microsoft finer again pulled the bung on the ability by catastrophe the agreement. Presumably, all this was prearranged, and allotment of the adjustments all-important for the Microsoft acquirement to go through.

Nokia will, in all probability, now carelessness the bulb afterwards mothballing it for a admirable period. The tax claims on it are far beyond than the bulk of the bulb as a activity concern. Despite the acknowledgment of acreage in Sriperumbudur, the tax claims are alike beyond than what an asset auction would realise. The actuality that Bac Ninh is up and running, and abutting to aiguille capacity, agency that Nokia has factored in no alteration of accouterment and accessories from Sriperumbudur to Vietnam. This agency no disruption in Nokia's all-around accumulation alternation arrangements. It additionally agency that the CBDTs asset benumb is cool from Nokia's standpoint. The government will again get aback the acreage the bulb sits on for free, apparently acceptable it in its accretion efforts for the airport. The integrators acquire additionally started shutting down. Of the vertical integrators, BYD has bankrupt up, and Foxconn, Salcomp, and Perlos (now Lite-On Mobile) are on their way out.

The 8,000 abounding time jobs are now bottomward to 1,000. These will disappear, as will the jobs with the integrators. The unions - CITU amid them - will bark a little, but will acquire no best added than to acquire the situation. Besides, the banknote infusions through Nokia's autonomous retirement arrangement (VRS), at about Rs. 6 lakh per worker, will leave the bounded abridgement afloat for some time. Indian consumers of the low-end affection phones will face a curtailment initially, but Bac Ninh is already acrimonious up the slack. (To apprehend the capital acquaint from Nokia's exit, bang here)

Adil Rustomjee is an advance adviser in Mumbai. Comments are acceptable ata_ rustomjee@hotmail.com.

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